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Iran-America Suez Crisis? Not for China's Geopolitical Calculus
The article suggests that while the US sees its struggle with Iran as a 'Suez moment,' China views it differently. Beijing's strategy in the Middle East prioritizes its own economic and security interests and leveraging diplomatic gains.
Geopolitical Parallels and China's Perspective
The US inability to achieve a swift victory over Iran has drawn comparisons to America's 'Suez moment,' a historical parallel for a declining power. However, China's leadership, particularly Xi Jinping, does not share this view. The 1956 Suez Crisis saw British, French, and Israeli forces intervene in Egypt, only for US pressure to force a withdrawal, shifting Middle East hegemony to Washington.
China has invested billions of USD into the Arab Gulf states, with the United Arab Emirates serving as a primary destination for Middle Eastern investment and hosting thousands of Chinese companies. These assets have recently faced exposure to Iranian missile threats, indicating Beijing's involvement in Tehran. The Middle East has emerged as an arena where Beijing is projecting its influence beyond Asia, securing what the source describes as its greatest diplomatic triumph in 2023 with the normalization agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This deal, which Washington could not broker, now faces significant challenges.
China's Middle East Strategy
Beijing's response to these developments reflects a cautious approach. Despite China having covertly supported Tehran in buying oil and providing limited military support, it also facilitated the release of a Chinese vessel seized by Iran. (Iran also repaid former President Trump and Mr. Xi during their Beijing meeting.) These actions suggest Beijing's intent to compel Iran to maintain open straits. China's consistent policy in the region, particularly since the 2023 outbreak of regional conflict, emphasizes securing its interests. Beijing's moves to protect its own shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb—threatened by Yemen's Houthis—highlight its self-serving approach. China has criticized the US and positioned itself as an alternative to American leadership, issuing diplomatic statements and financial proposals that advocate for peaceful coexistence and a balanced approach to development and security, all while avoiding the inherent complexities of the conflict.
China does not appear prepared to protect global common goods. Its strategy seemingly involves exploiting Washington's efforts to project power beyond Beijing's immediate sphere, considering the military's size. Burden-sharing is necessary, requiring closer coordination with both rivals and long-term partners in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Such coordination is time-consuming and often frustrating, but it is rarely regretted by US policymakers. Alliances enhance American power and, with consultation, often dictate Washington's objectives and strategies.
Geopolitical Implications
The situation is not America's Suez moment. Neither China nor any other rising power is poised to assume Washington's burdens, and the US is not a declining power. However, even a superpower must deploy its strength wisely. If the conflict with Iran serves as a reminder to US officials, Washington's rivals may come to regret their current stance.
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